U.S. and China Set Up Teams for Economic Talks

Sept. 21, 2006 – STEVEN R. WEISMAN, The New York Times

BEIJING, The United States and China, struggling to surmount the discord in their economic relations, established high-level teams in each country on Wednesday to conduct a “strategic economic dialogue” to be led on the American side by Henry M. Paulson Jr., the Treasury secretary.

Mr. Paulson said that while some might be disappointed that he did not resolve several irritants in the Chinese-American relationship on his trip this week, only a sustained high-level dialogue would produce progress in the disputes over trade, currency values, piracy of movies and software and other matters.

“What we’ve done here is put a process in place that gives us the best chance of getting us the results that we need to get,” Mr. Paulson told reporters. “To me the key thing always in working with the Chinese is to be able to get access to all the right people at the right level and have a process where there’s a real discipline.”

But it is unclear whether Mr. Paulson’s move would satisfy critics of China who have grown weary of appeals for patience and more dialogue.

Indeed, the pact probably clears the way for the Senate to vote for imposition of nearly 30 percent tariffs on Chinese goods if it does not act to raise the value of its currency against the dollar, making exports more expensive. The bill, sponsored by Senator Charles E. Schumer, a New York Democrat, and Senator Lindsey Graham, a South Carolina Republican, could pass the Senate as early as next week, its supporters say. Mr. Schumer and Mr. Graham had said that they would pull it back only if Mr. Paulson obtained concessions from China this week.

The bill has dimmer prospects in the House, and President Bush is considered certain to veto it if it passes. But the bill by itself could become yet another irritant with the Chinese, who American officials say have trouble understanding that Congress can act against the wishes of a president.

Mr. Paulson said he hoped that Congress would “judge me by the results that I get and this administration gets over a period of time” and warned Congress not to have a short-term mentality on issues as complex as Chinese economics.

“If they do, heaven help this country,” he said.

The leading industrial nations of the West have contended for years that China is suppressing the value of its currency to pump out exports and curb imports. The American trade deficit with China has ballooned over the last few years to about $200 billion annually, alarming labor unions, manufacturers and many in Congress.

Mr. Paulson’s appointment as Treasury secretary in July raised expectations that he could use his long experience with China as the former head of Goldman Sachs to make headway with China. But in recent weeks, and at the start of this trip, he has been cautioning against quick remedies and counseling patience.

The problem of China’s low currency value, its closed economy and aggressive economic practices needs to be fixed slowly as China achieves an internal consensus, Mr. Paulson said. Slowing exports to the West, for example, is opposed by many Chinese leaders who fear that a loss of jobs in China could lead to instability.

Patience was also the mantra of Mr. Paulson’s predecessor, John W. Snow, but Mr. Paulson may have more credibility because of the bipartisan support he has in Congress. While counseling patience, Mr. Paulson acknowledged that at least some short-term progress on the issues would be needed to instill confidence in the United States.

“I’m not going to take any victory laps over a process,” he told a small group of reporters at his hotel after the announcement. He promised that the “dialogue meetings” would be substantive, adding: “We don’t plan to sit around tables and write communiqués.  We intend to get things done.”

What officials say is new about the task force is that Mr. Paulson persuaded Mr. Bush soon after taking office in July to put him in charge of economic relations with China and oversee a “dialogue” involving other agencies, steps aimed at nudging the consensus along in China.

A noteworthy aspect of the announcement was that Mr. Paulson would be more in charge and oversee the process of making policy among commerce, trade, energy and other agencies, a step Treasury officials said he undertook over the summer by building his own form of consensus in the Bush administration, with the help of Mr. Bush.

One reason the announcement is likely to be greeted with skepticism is that there have been past “dialogues” with China announced over the years, also with some fanfare. The former deputy secretary of state, Robert B. Zoellick, headed a “senior dialogue” on several economic, political and security issues until he left earlier this year. Mr. Paulson said his new dialogue would subsume Mr. Zoellick’s.

China will be expected to raise its own issues with the United States. In the economic sphere these include Chinese complaints of American barriers to textile imports, curbs on sharing of high technology with the Chinese and a campaign to get Europe to ban certain military sales.

“I wouldn’t want to predict when there should be concrete results,” Mr. Paulson said. “But I’m not famous for being patient.”

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